crude price weekly insights – Fuel oil markets – FO LDO price trend in India
Crude flat prices moved higher this week. Brent closed the week up after rising more than $5/bbl to end at $94.39/bbl on Friday. Formal expiration of peace deal followed by no diplomatic initiation from either side, Escalation of political tensions in ME and Eastern Europe, No cargo movement at SoH and prevailig supply fears across the market are the fundamental factors in place that triggered crude price.
Timespreads dipped this week. Brent prompt timespreads and DFLs trade sideways to lower. WTI spreads found hard to move before prompt month expiry. Dubai spreads are tightened due to non-availability of dubai linked sour barrels to Asian markets. Brent 6 months calender spread traded in a backwardation of just under $10 as market felt that supplies for the prompt month are tighter than later months. The spread eased from a recent high of $19 in late July but is still much tighter than small contango reported at the start of last month before the ceasefire broke down.
Inventories data leaned bearish this week. U.S Crude and Gasoline stockpiles built up while distillates drew last week. The crude build incorporated refinery inputs rising, The gasoline build incorporated implied rising demand along with falling net imports. The distillates drew incorporated implied demand up in line with falling net exports. ARA European build offset SG draws.
Refined products markets continued to rally. Ending of the driving season pushed gasoline spreads to all time high. Diesel refining margins reached the highest level.
Market Positioning data demonstrated bearish momentum to the week ending 18th Aug, 2026 . ICE showed that Brent net length moderately up by 4554 positions after Longs and Shorts reduced positions. CFTC data revealed that WTI Futures and Options net length widened with both longs and shorts increased their positions.
FUEL OIL MARKETS
Asian Fuel oil markets at SG trading window demonstrated bullish momentum during the week supported by strong brent prices along with tightening inventory inflex. On the technical side, HSFO price curve moved above its short-term SMA while the Sep forward market is almost flat to the 21st Aug spot market, indicated moderate strength with strong bearish signal. Furnace oil (FO) retail selling prices in India are likely to revise up for the first half of Sep. Light Diesel Oil prices are expected to be firm. Bitumen and MTO prices are likely to change moderately.
