Global petroleum inventories have fallen by an estimated 650 million barrels since the US – Iran war began, raising concerns over supply resilience, particularly across Asia, including India.
According to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), stocks outside OECD countries including India, China and the rest of Asia may have declined by as much as 380 million barrels since the end of February.
India’s inventory position is increasingly important as the country relies heavily on imported crude oil to meet domestic refinery requirements. Lower global stock levels and potential supply disruptions could increase competition for crude cargoes, raise import costs and expose Indian refiners to greater price volatility.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released approximately 325 million barrels from strategic reserves among its members, helping cushion the market. However, commercial inventories remain around 200 million barrels below their 10-year seasonal average, following a substantial drawdown.
India market outlook: Tighter global inventories could increase crude procurement risks, freight costs and petroleum-product price volatility. Refinery margins, diesel availability and fuel-oil premiums across Asian trading hubs warrant close monitoring.price volatility. Refinery margins, diesel availability and fuel-oil premiums across Asian trading hubs warrant close monitoring.
