IEA Feb Oil Market Report sang bearish tunes. Here is a summary.
- Global oil demand for 2026 is forecast to grow by about 850,000 bpd lower than earlier projections and showing a moderation in consumption growth.
- World oil supply is expected to rise by roughtly 2.4 Mbpd in 2026, reaching about 108.6 Mbpd, despite a sharp supply drop in January due to extreme winter weather and operational outages in North America and parts of Eurasia.
- With supply increasing faster than demand, global inventories have continued to build, with stocks rising signficantly towards the end of 2025 and into January 2026 levels not seen since 2020.
- Prices are predicted to be volatile during the month amid over supply fears and demand uncertainity.
- IEA downward revision of demand outlook outweighed political tensions.
- Global oil surplus estimated to be at nearly 4Mbpd above demand, reflecting strong product throughput from countries like U.S, Brazil, Guyana as well as ongoging output agreements.
