IEA Oil Market Report – August 15, 2025 – Petrobazaar.com, Hyderabad, India.
IEA Oil Market Report (Aug 2025): Supply Beats Demand, Diesel in Focus – Impact on Indian Crude Basket.
Supply is growing faster than demand: IEA now sees +2.5 mb/d supply growth in 2025 and +1.9 mb/d in 2026, while demand growth is only ~+0.68 mb/d in 2025 (and +0.70 in 2026). That points to a cushioned, surplus-leaning market.
Refinery runs are near records. Global crude runs are set to hit ~85.6 mb/d in August; average runs lifted to 83.6 mb/d (2025) and 84.0 mb/d (2026) as margins jumped to 15-month highs in July.
Stocks are building globally. Observed oil inventories rose for a fifth month in June to a 46-month high (7,836 mb), even as OECD industry stocks stay near decade-lows—showing the build is mostly oil on water, China crude, and US NGLs.
Prices eased on OPEC+ unwind. Brent hovered around ~$70/bbl in July, then slipped to ~$67 in early August after the OPEC+ plan to fully unwind 2.2 mb/d voluntary cuts by September.
Diesel still matters. Diesel/gasoil cracks were strong through early Q3 but are starting to ease in Europe as summer demand fades and supply rises; keep an eye on spreads through autumn maintenance.
Source: iea.
