crude weekly insights – Fuel oil markets – FO LDO prices fell in India
Crude flat prices skyrocketed this week, logged in around 16 pct weekly gains on 17th July, 2026. Brent Sep futures prices moved around $12 up to close at $88.1 while WTI Aug futures prices went up $11 during the week to close at $82.49 on Friday. Escalation of U.S-Iran conflict, Renewed collapse of SoH transit compounded prevailing supply side risks in the market.
Timespreads price market structure pulled back. Brent prompt month price curve turned back from contango structure on last Friday to backwardation of nearly $2.5/bbl on Tuesday. Crude benchmark prompt spreads demonstrating backwardation structure.
Inventories data showed draws in U.S crude stocks with the largest build of commercial stocks since Sep. Gasoline stocks drew while distillates built up. ARA Europe flipped to builds while SG saw moderate draws.
Refined product market is moving strong amid mounting supply concern. Diesel and gasoline cracks are hitting fresh highs.
Market Positioning data showed that speculators were the net buyers with positioning risk remains firmly to the upside. As per the data, Money managers increased their net length in both Brent & WTI crude F&O during the week ending 14th July, 2026. Shorts left while longs built up moderately.
FUEL OIL MARKETS – HSFO & VLSFO Singapore Market Summary
Singapore’s HSFO 380 CST prompt cargo market extended its rally through the week, climbing from US$478/MT to US$569/MT (+US$91/MT, +19%), while VLSFO 0.5% advanced from US$683/MT to US$770.5/MT (+US$87.5/MT, +12.8%). Brent crude also strengthened from US$83.30/bbl to US$88.10/bbl, providing broad support to bunker fuel prices. HSFO outperformed VLSFO, indicating a tightening high-sulphur fuel market relative to low-sulphur grades. Prompt month fundamentals remain firm with time spreads market structure fell into backwardation. prompt cargoes trading at a premium to deferred supply, reflecting immediate demand. Inventories nos remain flat at SG market that may allow prompt premium remain elevated. Speculators remain bullish over fuel oil as per price behaviour. Technically, HSFO has broken several short term resistance levels, confirming strong upward momentum.
Petrobazaar Market View
The combination of strong prompt-month backwardation, firm physical demand, supportive speculative buying, and higher crude prices points to continued strength in the Asian HSFO market. Unless Singapore inventories rise sharply or crude experiences a significant correction, Indian Furnace Oil prices are likely to remain firm to higher in the coming pricing revision, with only limited scope for near-term downside.
