crude weekly insights – Fuel oil markets – FO LDO prices go up in India
Crude flat prices ripped high during the week ending 24th July, 2026 amid widening U.S – Iran conflict. Both the benchmarks closed the week around 9 pct high last week. Brent touched above $100 on Thu to close at $97 on Friday. Simmering Middle East tensions, Houthis threats to Saudi Red Sea shipping and SoH largely remaining closure are the fundamental factors that prevailed in the market.
Timespreads market price curve continued to flirt with deep backwardation. Brent DFL was pushed to $8/bbl form $1/bbl before pulling back to around $5/bbl on Friday. DFL(Dated to frontline) measures the price spread between physical Dated Brent and the front month ICE Brent futures contract. All major benchmarks turned into deep backwardation due to existing supply tightness amid widening ME conflict.
Inventories data showed U.S stocks built largely due to NGL heavy build. As per reports, it was observed that stocks are getting depleted across the US, ARA Europe and SG.
Refined products prices continued to demonstrate upside momentum. U.S gasoline and distillates crack spreads remain at all time seasonal highs. Investors are also increasingly bullish over refined fuels markets following the Ukraine’s intensified attacks on Russia’s oil refineries.
Market Positioning data showed that speculators are the net buyers once again during the week ending 21st July, 2026. Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of another 22 Mb in Brent F&O over the seven days ending July 21st.
FUEL OIL MARKETS
HSFO & VLSFO Singapore Market Summary
Singapore fuel-oil markets remain firm despite the late-week correction in crude. HSFO rose from $587/MT to $636.50/MT (+8.4%), while VLSFO jumped from $789/MT to $877/MT (+11.2%). Importantly, on 24 July Brent fell from $100.69 to $96.78/bbl, but HSFO and VLSFO continued higher, indicating that fuel oil strength is being driven by more than crude alone. Regional supply, bunker availability and product-specific fundamentals are supporting prices.
Petrobazaar Market View
The combination of rising prompt prices + strong Aug/Sep backwardation + fuel oil outperforming Brent gives a bullish signal for India’s 1 August pricing window.
Furnace Oil has the highest probability of a substantial upward revision, because Singapore HSFO gained about $49.50/MT in only four trading sessions. LDO should also move upward, while bitumen and solvents are likely to see comparatively moderate increases. The main downside risk to this forecast is a further sharp correction in Brent combined with continued rebuilding of Singapore fuel-oil inventories before the July pricing window closes.
