By Srinivas Chowdary Sunkara // petrobazaar // 11th August, 2019.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA) MONTHLY OIL REPORT - JULY HIGHLIGHTS
The IEA (International Energy Agency) released its monthly oil report for the month of July, 2019. With reference to the latest publication, IEA said that economic woes hold sway over geopolitics. Despite of Geo-political tensions in Arabian gulf, Brent prices eased back from the most recent high of $67 a barrel due to escalation of demand worries. Shipping operations are at normal levels, albeit with higher insurance costs and the oil security position in the Straight of Hormuz waters is under the surveillance of IEA.
While mentioning that the International Monetary Fund's recent downgrading of economic outlook, IEA expressed concern about the health of the global economy amid the recent U.S proposal of new tariffs on Chinese goods and consequent currency tensions. IEA lowered global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 by 100 kb/d and 50 kb/d, to 1.1 mb/d and 1.3 mb/d, respectively. This report also sited that the Chinese oil demand revised upwards, while India and US show weakness.
Turning to supply side, Global oil supply held steady in July above 100 mb/d, but fell below year earlier levels for the first time since November 2017. Robust compliance with OPEC+ supply cuts and losses from Venezuela and Iran saw OPEC oil production fall by 2 mb/d versus July 2018. Non-OPEC supply was up 1.4 mb/d y-o-y in July and is set to grow by 1.9 mb/d in 2019 and 2.2 mb/d next year. The global refining throughput is expected to rebound in 2H19 after subdued in 1H19. In 2019, refined product demand growth is expected to pick up since the China and Middle East are alone in seeing growth in refining activity.
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