:: Reports --- ID :: 14839
OPEC Monthly oil report - Summary
March - 2018

By Srinivas Chowdary Sunkara //petrobazaar.com


1. Crude Oil Price Movements

In February, The OPEC reference basket dropped 5% m-o-m, lower for the first time in six months, to average at $63.48/b. Year-to-date, the ORB was 23.4%, or $12.37, higher than seen in the same period a year earlier. U.S financial markets turmoil and firmer dollar pushed dated Brent down by 4.8% and WTI by 2.3% lower during the month. A continued drop at U.S major inventory hubs narrowed Brent-WTI spread to around $3/b by the end of the month.

2. World Economy - GDP growth
OPEC estimated global GDP growth remained unchanged at 3.8% for both 2017 and 2018. As per the report, U.S growth is expected to stand at 2.7%, after a growth of 2.3% in 2017. For the year 2018, Euro-zone growth is estimated at 2.2%, Japan growth is revised down at 1.5%, India's GDP growth is higher than 2017 at 7.2% and China is projected to grow at 6.5%.

3. Growth in World Oil Demand

OPEC Forecasted oil demand growth in 2018 at around 1.6 Mb/d, marginally higher than February's projections, with total oil demand at 98.63 mb/d. OPEC is projecting oil demand growth of 0.32 mb/d in OECD region during 1Q18 showing a growth of 0.32 Mb/d for 2018. In non-OECD region, growth projections were also adjusted higher by 20 tb/d in 1Q18, now showing growth of 1.27 Mb/d in 2018.

4. World oil supply is revised up

non-OPEC countries produced higher than expected out put in 4Q17 to revise up 2017 supplies. non-OPEC supply is estimated to grow by 0.28mb/d in 2018 due to higher than expected output in 1Q18 by 360tb/d in OECD, FSU and China. OPEC NGLs are now expected to grow by 0.18 Mb/d in 2018. According to secondary sources, OPEC reported its production decreased by 77 tb/d in February, 2018, averaging 32.19 Mb/d