By Srinivas Chowdary Sunkara // petrobazaar // 12-12-2017
OPEC DECEMBER OIL MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
CRUDE OIL PRICE MOVEMENTS
OPEC reported that oil futures continued to improve over the past two months - Oct and Nov on bullish market sentiment due to improved market fundamentals was fueled by indications from Key OPEC members, Russia and other participating countries on extention of production cut agreement. Oil prices has seen the highest levels since June, 2015. ICE Brent averaged $5.22 higher, at $62.87/b, while NYMEX WTI advanced $5.07 to average $56.66/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened further to $6.20/b, the widest since mid-2015. Hedge funds raised their combined futures and options positions in the NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent. The OPEC reference basket surged by almost 10% in November to average above $60/b for the first time since June, 2015.
OPEC report says that Global economic ongoing growth remains intact and continued its momentum as 3Q17 OECD growth surprised to the upside again. In U.S, The growth forecast for 2017 stands at 2.3% and GDP growth in 2018 is estimated to reach 2.5% on expected positive outcome of the U.S admin's tax proposal. The Canada's GDP growth forecast for 2017 was revised up to 3.0%, from 2.8%, forecast for 2018 remained unchanged at 2.1%. U.S growth dynamic and Oil price recovery positively impacted for the strong momentum so far for Canada in 2017. Growth in Japan was slightly revised up for 2018 to 1.4%, slightly below this year's growth forecast of 1.6%. The Euro Zone continuous enjoying a good dynamic leading to growth of 2.3% in 2017, followed by 2.1% in 2018. Solid growth was observed in China at 5.8% for 2017 and 6.5% in 2018. In India, 2017 growth forecast was revised down to 6.5%.
WORLD OIL DEMAND
OPEC estimated that the world oil demand growth in 2017 remains unchanged from the previous month at 1.53 mb/d. China is projected to lead oil demand with 0.45 Mb/d followed by India with 0.28 mb/d and OECD Americas with 0.24 mb/d. In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.51 mb/d. OECD will contribute positively to oil demand growth, adding some 0.28 mb/d, whereas the bulk of the growth will come from the non-OPEC with 1.23 mb/d of potential growth.
WORLD OIL SUPPLY
OPEC Monthly report says that the world oil supply in November increased by 0.84 mb/d m-o-m from the previous monthly report to average 97.44 mb/d. representing an increase of 0.35 mb/d y-o-y. For 2017, non-OPEC supply is estimated to grow by 0.91 mb/d y-o-y in 2017 to average 57.82 mb/d due to an upward revision of Russia's oil supply growth in 2017 by 0.09 mb/d. In November 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 133 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.45 mb/d.
Taglines: OPEC MOMR - crude oil price movements - world economy - world oil demand - world oil supply - product markets and refining operations - stock movements - Brent - WTI spread - OECD